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Brexit - new Prime Minister

25 July 2019

A new Prime Minister has been appointed and over the last few weeks Boris Johnson has proudly paraded his Brexit credentials before the nation. But are we really any the wiser as to what may happen on 31 October?

Thanks to the BDIA’s investment advisers, Rathbones, some interesting research work has been done on the probabilities of potential Brexit outcomes. Their analysts take on the % likelihood of various outcomes by 31 October 2019 is shown in the diagram above. Interestingly enough, their research seems to suggest a reasonable likelihood of a further delay up to March 2020 (53%), with the probability of a ‘no deal’ at 14%, and some sort of deal at 23%. The end of March 2020 is the last chance for anything to be decided before the EU signs off its 2021-27 multi-annual financial framework and any deal with the UK must really be done by then so all member state budget contributions can be finalised.

 

July-Brexit-diagram.jpg

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